World Cup 2026 Favorites: Early Odds and Title Contenders
With the tournament draw complete and kickoff approaching, the race for the 2026 World Cup title is taking shape. Bookmakers, analysts, and football experts have weighed in — and while the expanded 48-team format creates more uncertainty than ever, a clear tier of early favorites has emerged.
With qualification still ongoing and squad selections months away, these rankings reflect early betting markets rather than final tournament realities. Below is a breakdown of the teams currently positioned as the strongest contenders.
Spain: The Clear Favorite
Spain enters the 2026 World Cup as the favorite, with top bookmakers offering odds around +400 to +450. La Roja carries strong momentum as the reigning European champions, having won Euro 2024 with impressive performances throughout the tournament.
Spain boasts one of the strongest midfields in world football, featuring Rodri, Pedri, Martin Zubimendi, Fabián Ruiz, and Dani Olmo. In attack, Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams are capable of tormenting any defense.
The combination of young talent, tactical cohesion under Luis de la Fuente, and championship experience makes Spain the team to beat.
England: Perennial Contenders, New Direction
England sits second in most bookmaker rankings, with odds around +600 to +650. After reaching the Euro 2024 final (losing to Spain), the Three Lions remain among the elite — now under Thomas Tuchel's management.
The appointment of Tuchel suggests a more pragmatic, tournament-focused approach — something England has often lacked at decisive moments.
England's squad depth is exceptional: Harry Kane leading the attack, Jude Bellingham in midfield, and a defense anchored by experienced Premier League players. The question, as always, is whether England can deliver in knockout rounds when pressure peaks.
France: Two-Time Finalists Seeking Redemption
France has reached the final in the last two World Cups — winning in 2018, losing on penalties to Argentina in 2022. Many analysts still argue France has the best starting XI in the world, with Kylian Mbappé leading an attack supported by Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembélé, and emerging talents like Rayan Cherki.
France currently sits at approximately +700 odds, making them the third choice behind Spain and England. Les Bleus' combination of speed, depth, and tournament experience makes them dangerous regardless of the draw.
Brazil and Argentina: South American Powers
Both Brazil and Argentina are priced around +800, rounding out the top five favorites.
Argentina enters as the defending champion, with Lionel Messi potentially playing his final World Cup. The emotional narrative is strong, but Argentina's reliance on veteran players could prove costly in a physically demanding expanded tournament.
Brazil remains a global powerhouse despite uneven qualifying. Their talent alone keeps them among the top futures bets — Vinícius Jr., Rodrygo, and Endrick represent the next generation of Brazilian excellence. Brazil's relative inconsistency in qualifying raises questions about tactical balance despite elite attacking talent.
The Next Tier: Germany, Portugal, Netherlands
This group represents teams with championship pedigree but unresolved structural questions.
Portugal is available around +1100 to +1200, with a squad featuring Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, and Rafael Leão. Cristiano Ronaldo may return for one final World Cup, adding star power if not necessarily peak performance.
Germany sits around +1300, rebuilding under Julian Nagelsmann after disappointing recent tournaments. A reset under Nagelsmann suggests tactical clarity that was missing in recent tournaments.
The Netherlands, despite never winning a World Cup, consistently performs at major tournaments. Virgil van Dijk anchors the defense, with Memphis Depay and Cody Gakpo providing attacking threat.
Dark Horses to Watch
Beyond the favorites, several teams could surprise:
Morocco, semifinalists in 2022, again look like Africa's top contender and have the tactical organization to trouble bigger nations.
Ecuador finished second in South American qualifying, ahead of Brazil, Uruguay, and Colombia — a sign of genuine quality rather than luck.
The United States, as co-hosts, saw their odds improve to around +5000 after a favorable group draw. Playing all group matches at home under Mauricio Pochettino, the Americans could build momentum — though a deep run would still require significant overperformance relative to historical World Cup benchmarks.
What the Expanded Format Means
The 2026 World Cup expands from 32 to 48 teams, with 12 groups of four. This format increases the chances of upsets in early rounds while potentially exhausting favorites who face more matches en route to the final.
Spain enters as the betting favorite, but tight clustering near the top suggests a wide-open tournament. The margins between the top six or seven teams are thin — and in knockout football, anything can happen.
Takeaway: The favorites are identifiable — but the margin for error has never been smaller.
